@article{Espinosa-Gonzalez:10.1101/2021.12.23.21268279,
author = {Espinosa-Gonzalez, A and Prociuk, D and Fiorentino, F and Ramtale, C and Mi, E and Mi, E and Glampson, B and Neves, AL and Okusi, C and Hussain, L and Macartney, J and Brown, M and Browne, B and Warren, C and Chowla, R and Heaversedge, J and Greenhalgh, T and de, Lusignan S and Mayer, E and Delaney, B},
doi = {10.1101/2021.12.23.21268279},
title = {Remote Covid Assessment in Primary Care (RECAP) risk prediction tool: derivation and real-world validation studies},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268279},
}

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AB  - <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Accurate assessment of COVID-19 severity in the community is essential for best patient care and efficient use of services and requires a risk prediction score that is COVID-19 specific and adequately validated in a community setting. Following a qualitative phase to identify signs, symptoms and risk factors, we sought to develop and validate two COVID-19-specific risk prediction scores RECAP-GP (without peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2)) and RECAP-O2 (with SpO2).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>Prospective cohort study using multivariable logistic regression for model development. Data on signs and symptoms (model predictors) were collected on community-based patients with suspected COVID-19 via primary care electronic health records systems and linked with secondary data on hospital admission (primary outcome) within 28 days of symptom onset. Data sources: RECAP-GP: Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) primary care practices (development), Northwest London (NWL) primary care practices, NHS COVID-19 Clinical Assessment Service (CCAS) (validation). RECAP-O2: Doctaly Assist platform (development, and validation in subsequent sample). Estimated sample size was 2,880 per model.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Findings</jats:title><jats:p>Data were available from 8,311 individuals. Observations, such SpO2, were mostly missing in NWL, RSC, and CCAS data; however, SpO2 was available for around 70% of Doctaly patients. In the final predictive models, RECAP-GP included sex, age, degree of breathlessness, temperature symptoms, and presence of hypertension (Area Under the Curve (AUC): 0.802, Validation Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of ‘low risk’ 98.8%. RECAP-O2 included age, de
AU  - Espinosa-Gonzalez,A
AU  - Prociuk,D
AU  - Fiorentino,F
AU  - Ramtale,C
AU  - Mi,E
AU  - Mi,E
AU  - Glampson,B
AU  - Neves,AL
AU  - Okusi,C
AU  - Hussain,L
AU  - Macartney,J
AU  - Brown,M
AU  - Browne,B
AU  - Warren,C
AU  - Chowla,R
AU  - Heaversedge,J
AU  - Greenhalgh,T
AU  - de,Lusignan S
AU  - Mayer,E
AU  - Delaney,B
DO  - 10.1101/2021.12.23.21268279
TI  - Remote Covid Assessment in Primary Care (RECAP) risk prediction tool: derivation and real-world validation studies
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268279
ER  - 

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