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  • Journal article
    Koppelaar RHEM, Keirstead J, Shah N, Woods Jet al., 2016,

    A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models

    , Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol: 59, Pages: 1531-1544, ISSN: 1364-0321
  • Journal article
    Chayen N, shaffer, govada, Khurshid, Kassen, Leese H S, Hu S, Menzel, Chain B, Saridakiset al., 2016,

    Exploring Carbon Nanomaterial Diversity for Nucleation of Protein Crystals

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2045-2322

    Controlling crystal nucleation is a crucial step in obtaining high quality protein crystals for structure determination by X-ray crystallography. Carbon nanomaterials (CNMs) including carbon nanotubes, graphene oxide, and carbon black provide a range of surface topographies, porosities and length scales; functionalisation with two different approaches, gas phase radical grafting and liquid phase reductive grafting, provide routes to a range of oligomer functionalised products. These grafted materials, combined with a range of controls, were used in a large-scale assessment of the effectiveness for protein crystal nucleation of 20 different carbon nanomaterials on five proteins. This study has allowed a direct comparison of the key characteristics of carbon-based nucleants: appropriate surface chemistry, porosity and/or roughness are required. The most effective solid system tested in this study, carbon black nanoparticles functionalised with poly(ethylene glycol) methyl ether of mean molecular weight 5000, provides a novel highly effective nucleant, that was able to induce crystal nucleation of four out of the five proteins tested at metastable conditions.
  • Journal article
    Loveridge R, Wearn OR, Vieira M, Bernard H, Ewers RMet al., 2016,

    Movement behaviour of native and invasive small mammals shows logging may facilitate invasion in a tropical rainforest

    , Biotropica, Vol: 48, Pages: 373-380, ISSN: 1744-7429

    Invasive species pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. This study investigates the extent to which human disturbance to natural ecosystems facilitates the spread of non-native species, focusing on a small mammal community in selectively logged rainforest, Sabah, Borneo. The microhabitat preferences of the invasive Rattus rattus and three native species of small mammal were examined in three-dimensional space by combining the spool-and-line technique with a novel method for quantifying fine-scale habitat selection. These methods allowed the detection of significant differences for each species between the microhabitats used compared with alternative, available microhabitats that were avoided. Rattus rattus showed the greatest preference for heavily disturbed habitats and, in contrast to two native small mammals of the genus Maxomys, R. rattus showed high levels of arboreal behaviour, frequently leaving the forest floor and travelling through the under and mid-storey forest strata. This behaviour may enable R. rattus to effectively utilize the complex three-dimensional space of the lower strata in degraded forests, which is characterized by dense vegetation. The behavioural flexibility of R. rattus to operate in both terrestrial and arboreal space may facilitate its invasion into degraded forests. Human activities that generate heavily disturbed habitats preferred by R. rattus may promote the establishment of this invasive species in tropical forests in Borneo, and possibly elsewhere. We present this as an example of a synergistic effect, whereby forest disturbance directly threatens biodiversity, and indirectly increases the threat posed by invasive species, creating habitat conditions that facilitate the establishment of non-native fauna.
  • Journal article
    Woodward RT, Fam DWH, Anthony DB, Hong J, McDonald TO, Petit C, Shaffer MSP, Bismarck Aet al., 2016,

    Hierarchically porous carbon foams from pickering high internal phase emulsions

    , Carbon, Vol: 101, Pages: 253-260, ISSN: 0008-6223

    Carbon foams were produced from a macroporous poly(divinylbenzene) (poly(DVB) precursor, synthesized by polymerizing the continuous but minority phase of water-in-oil high internal phase emulsions (HIPEs) stabilized by molecular and/or particulate emulsifiers. Both permeable and non-permeable hierarchically porous carbon foams, or ‘carboHIPEs’, were prepared by carbonization of the resulting macroporous polymers at 800 °C. The carbon yields were as high as 26 wt.% of the original polymer. CarboHIPEs retain the pore structure of the macroporous polymer precursor, but with surface areas of up to 505 m2/g and excellent electrical conductivities of 81 S/m. Contrary to some previous reports, the method does not require further modification, such as sulfonation or additional crosslinking of the polyHIPE prior to carbonization, due to the inherently crosslinked structure of poly(DVB). The use of a pourable, aqueous emulsion-template enables simple moulding, minimises waste and avoids the strong acid treatments used to remove many conventional solid-templates. The retention of the macroporous structure is coupled with the introduction of micropores during carbonization, producing hierarchically porous carboHIPEs, suitable for a wide range of applications as sorbents and electrodes.
  • Journal article
    Patsios C, Wu B, Chatzinikolaou E, Rogers DJ, Wade N, Brandon NP, Taylor Pet al., 2016,

    An integrated approach for the analysis and control of grid connected energy storage systems

    , Journal of Energy Storage, Vol: 5, Pages: 48-61, ISSN: 2352-152X

    This paper presents an integrated modelling methodology which includes reduced-order models of a lithium ion battery and a power electronic converter, connected to a 35-bus distribution network model. The literature contains many examples of isolated modelling of individual energy storage mediums, power electronic interfaces and control algorithms for energy storage. However, when assessing the performance of a complete energy storage system, the interaction between components gives rise to a range of phenomena that are difficult to quantify if studied in isolation. This paper proposes an integrated electro–thermo–chemical modelling methodology that seeks to address this problem directly by integrating reduced-order models of battery cell chemistry, power electronic circuits and grid operation into a computationally efficient framework. The framework is capable of simulation speeds over 100 times faster than real-time and captures phenomena typically not observed in simpler battery and power converter models or non-integrated frameworks. All simulations are performed using real system load profiles recorded in the United Kingdom. To illustrate the advantages inherent in such a modelling approach, two specific interconnected effects are investigated: the effect of the choice of battery float state-of-charge on overall system efficiency and the rate of battery degradation (capacity/power fade). Higher state-of-charge operation offers improved efficiency due to lower polarisation losses of the battery and lower losses in the converter, however, an increase in the rate of battery degradation is observed due to the accelerated growth of the solid-electrolyte interphase layer. We demonstrate that grid control objectives can be met in several different ways, but that the choices made can result in a substantial improvement in system roundtrip efficiency, with up to a 43% reduction in losses, or reduction in battery degradation by a factor of two, depending on b
  • Journal article
    Schuyler QA, Wilcox C, Townsend KA, Wedemeyer-Strombel KR, Balazs G, van Sebille E, Hardesty BDet al., 2016,

    Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles

    , GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Vol: 22, Pages: 567-576, ISSN: 1354-1013
  • Journal article
    Krevor S, Reynolds C, Al-Menhali A, Niu Bet al., 2016,

    The impact of reservoir conditions and rock heterogeneity on CO2-Brine multiphase flow In permeable sandstone

    , Petrophysics, Vol: 57, Pages: 12-18, ISSN: 1529-9074
  • Journal article
    Ang CDE, Rein G, Peiro J, Harrison Ret al., 2016,

    Simulating longitudinal ventilation flows in long tunnels: comparison of full CFD and multi-scale modelling approaches in FDS6

    , Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, Vol: 52, Pages: 119-126, ISSN: 0886-7798

    The accurate computational modelling of airflows in transport tunnels is needed for regulations compliance, pollution and fire safety studies but remains a challenge for long domains because the computational time increases dramatically. We simulate air flows using the open-source code FDS 6.1.1 developed by NIST, USA. This work contains two parts. First we validate FDS6’s capability for predicting the flow conditions in the tunnel by comparing the predictions against on-site measurements in the Dartford Tunnel, London, UK, which is 1200 m long and 8.5 m in diameter. The comparison includes the average velocity and the profile downstream of an active jet fan up to 120 m. Secondly, we study the performance of the multi-scale modelling approach by splitting the tunnel into CFD domain and a one-dimensional domain using the FDS HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning) feature. The work shows the average velocity predicted by FDS6 using both the full CFD and multi-scale approaches is within the experimental uncertainty of the measurements. Although the results showed the prediction of the downstream velocity profile near the jet fan falls outside the on-site measurements, the predictions at 80 m and beyond are accurate. Our results also show multi-scale modelling in FDS6 is as accurate as full CFD but up to 2.2 times faster and that computational savings increase with the length of the tunnel. This work sets the foundation for the next step in complexity with fire dynamics introduced to the tunnel.
  • Journal article
    Kalamaras C, Palomas D, Bos R, Horton A, Crimmin M, Hellgardt Ket al., 2016,

    Selective Oxidation of Methane to Methanol Over Cu- and Fe-Exchanged Zeolites: The Effect of Si/Al Molar Ratio

    , CATALYSIS LETTERS, Vol: 146, Pages: 483-492, ISSN: 1011-372X
  • Journal article
    Blamey J, Fennell P, Anthony E, Dugwell D, Zhao M, Manovic Vet al., 2016,

    A shrinking core model for steam hydration of CaO-based sorbents cycled for CO2 capture

    , Chemical Engineering Journal, Vol: 291, Pages: 298-305, ISSN: 1873-3212

    Calcium looping is a developing CO2 capture technology. It is based on the reversiblecarbonation of CaO sorbent, which becomes less reactive upon cycling. One method ofincreasing the reactivity of unreactive sorbent is by hydration in the calcined (CaO) form.Here, sorbent has been subjected to repeated cycles of carbonation and calcination within asmall fluidised bed reactor. Cycle numbers of 0 (i.e., one calcination), 2, 6 and 13 have beenstudied to generate sorbents that have been deactivated to different extents. Subsequently,the sorbent generated was subjected to steam hydration tests within a thermogravimetricanalyser, using hydration temperatures of 473, 573 and 673 K. Sorbents that had beencycled less prior to hydration hydrated rapidly. However, the more cycled sorbents exhibitedbehaviour where the hydration conversion tended towards an asymptotic value, which is likelyto be associated with pore blockage. This asymptotic value tended to be lower at higherhydration temperatures; however, the maximum rate of hydration was found to increase withincreasing hydration temperature. A shrinking core model has been developed and applied to 2the data. It fits data from experiments that did not exhibit extensive pore blockage well, butfits data from experiments that exhibited pore blockage less well
  • Journal article
    Lanzini A, Guerra C, Leone P, Santarelli M, Smeacetto F, Fiorilli S, Gondolini A, Mercadelli E, Sanson A, Brandon NPet al., 2016,

    Influence of the microstructure on the catalytic properties of SOFC anodes under dry reforming of methane

    , MATERIALS LETTERS, Vol: 164, Pages: 312-315, ISSN: 0167-577X
  • Journal article
    Zhao R, Zhuge W, Zhang Y, Yang M, Martinez-Botas Ret al., 2016,

    Numerical study of a two-stage turbine characteristic under pulsating flow conditions

    , JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 30, Pages: 557-565, ISSN: 1738-494X
  • Journal article
    Gallego-Sala AV, Charman DJ, Harrison SP, Li G, Prentice ICet al., 2016,

    Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

    , Climate of the Past, Vol: 12, Pages: 129-136, ISSN: 1814-9332

    Blanket bog occupies approximately 6 % of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash) based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka) and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanket-bog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts that large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland, Wales, and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre-Neolithic) blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later expansion of bl
  • Journal article
    Blair P, Buytaert W, 2016,

    Socio-hydrological modelling: a review asking “why, what and how?”

    , Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 20, Pages: 443-478, ISSN: 1607-7938

    Interactions between humans and the environment are occurring on a scale that has never previously been seen; the scale of human interaction with the water cycle, along with the coupling present between social and hydrological systems, means that decisions that impact water also impact people. Models are often used to assist in decision-making regarding hydrological systems, and so in order for effective decisions to be made regarding water resource management, these interactions and feedbacks should be accounted for in models used to analyse systems in which water and humans interact. This paper reviews literature surrounding aspects of socio-hydrological modelling. It begins with background information regarding the current state of socio-hydrology as a discipline, before covering reasons for modelling and potential applications. Some important concepts that underlie socio-hydrological modelling efforts are then discussed, including ways of viewing socio-hydrological systems, space and time in modelling, complexity, data and model conceptualisation. Several modelling approaches are described, the stages in their development detailed and their applicability to socio-hydrological cases discussed. Gaps in research are then highlighted to guide directions for future research. The review of literature suggests that the nature of socio-hydrological study, being interdisciplinary, focusing on complex interactions between human and natural systems, and dealing with long horizons, is such that modelling will always present a challenge; it is, however, the task of the modeller to use the wide range of tools afforded to them to overcome these challenges as much as possible. The focus in socio-hydrology is on understanding the human–water system in a holistic sense, which differs from the problem solving focus of other water management fields, and as such models in socio-hydrology should be developed with a view to gaining new insight into these dynamics. There is an es
  • Journal article
    Pfeifer M, Kor L, Nilus R, Turner E, Cusack J, Lysenko I, Khoo M, Chey VK, Chung AC, Ewers RMet al., 2016,

    Mapping the structure of Borneo's tropical forests across a degradation gradient

    , Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol: 176, Pages: 84-97, ISSN: 0034-4257

    South East Asia has the highest rate of lowland forest loss of any tropical region, with logging and deforestation for conversion to plantation agriculture being flagged as the most urgent threats. Detecting and mapping logging impacts on forest structure is a primary conservation concern, as these impacts feed through to changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Here, we test whether high-spatial resolution satellite remote sensing can be used to map the responses of aboveground live tree biomass (AGB), canopy leaf area index (LAI) and fractional vegetation cover (FCover) to selective logging and deforestation in Malaysian Borneo. We measured these attributes in permanent vegetation plots in rainforest and oil palm plantations across the degradation landscape of the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems project. We found significant mathematical relationships between field-measured structure and satellite-derived spectral and texture information, explaining up to 62% of variation in biophysical structure across forest and oil palm plots. These relationships held at different aggregation levels from plots to forest disturbance types and oil palms allowing us to map aboveground biomass and canopy structure across the degradation landscape. The maps reveal considerable spatial variation in the impacts of previous logging, a pattern that was less clear when considering field data alone. Up-scaled maps revealed a pronounced decline in aboveground live tree biomass with increasing disturbance, impacts which are also clearly visible in the field data even a decade after logging. Field data demonstrate a rapid recovery in forest canopy structure with the canopy recovering to pre-disturbance levels a decade after logging. Yet, up-scaled maps show that both LAI and FCover are still reduced in logged compared to primary forest stands and markedly lower in oil palm stands. While uncertainties remain, these maps can now be utilised to identify conservation win–win
  • Journal article
    Zulkafli Z, Buytaert W, Manz B, Veliz-Rosas C, Willems P, Lavado-Casimiro W, Guyot JL, Santini Wet al., 2016,

    Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the western Amazon

    , Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1748-9326

    The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subjectof intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role ofrainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact,and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics atcontinental and subregional scales, such as the western Amazon. New projectionsfrom the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble indicateconsistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the PeruvianAmazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potentialimpact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazonriver. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annualminimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periodsbetween 1 and 100 years. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climatechange project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12%increases respectively for the 100-year return floods). These findings agree withpreviously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on EmissionsScenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potentialconsequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology,and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more stronglyemphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest systemover greater Amazonia
  • Journal article
    Maimoun M, Madani K, Reinhart D, 2016,

    Multi-level multi-criteria analysis of alternative fuels for waste collection vehicles in the United States

    , Science of the Total Environment, Vol: 550, Pages: 349-361, ISSN: 0048-9697

    Historically, the U.S. waste collection fleet was dominated by diesel-fueled waste collection vehicles (WCVs); the growing need for sustainable waste collection has urged decision makers to incorporate economically efficient alternative fuels, while mitigating environmental impacts. The pros and cons of alternative fuels complicate the decisions making process, calling for a comprehensive study that assesses the multiple factors involved. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods allow decision makers to select the best alternatives with respect to selection criteria. In this study, two MCDA methods, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW), were used to rank fuel alternatives for the U.S. waste collection industry with respect to a multi-level environmental and financial decision matrix. The environmental criteria consisted of life-cycle emissions, tail-pipe emissions, water footprint (WFP), and power density, while the financial criteria comprised of vehicle cost, fuel price, fuel price stability, and fueling station availability. The overall analysis showed that conventional diesel is still the best option, followed by hydraulic-hybrid WCVs, landfill gas (LFG) sourced natural gas, fossil natural gas, and biodiesel. The elimination of the WFP and power density criteria from the environmental criteria ranked biodiesel 100 (BD100) as an environmentally better alternative compared to other fossil fuels (diesel and natural gas). This result showed that considering the WFP and power density as environmental criteria can make a difference in the decision process. The elimination of the fueling station and fuel price stability criteria from the decision matrix ranked fossil natural gas second after LFG-sourced natural gas. This scenario was found to represent the status quo of the waste collection industry. A sensitivity analysis for the status quo scenario showed the overall ranking of diesel and f
  • Journal article
    Ang CP, Toper B, Gambhir A, 2016,

    Financial impacts of UK's energy and climate change policies on commercial and industrial businesses

    , Energy Policy, Vol: 91, Pages: 273-286, ISSN: 1873-6777
  • Journal article
    Le Vine N, Butler A, McIntyre N, Jackson Cet al., 2016,

    Diagnosing hydrological limitations of a land surface model: application of JULES to a deep-groundwater chalk basin

    , Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol: 20, Pages: 143-159, ISSN: 1027-5606

    Land surface models (LSMs) are prospective starting points to develop a global hyper-resolution model of the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. However, there are some fundamental limitations of LSMs related to how meaningfully hydrological fluxes and stores are represented. A diagnostic approach to model evaluation and improvement is taken here that exploits hydrological expert knowledge to detect LSM inadequacies through consideration of the major behavioural functions of a hydrological system: overall water balance, vertical water redistribution in the unsaturated zone, temporal water redistribution, and spatial water redistribution over the catchment's groundwater and surface-water systems. Three types of information are utilized to improve the model's hydrology: (a) observations, (b) information about expected response from regionalized data, and (c) information from an independent physics-based model. The study considers the JULES (Joint UK Land Environmental Simulator) LSM applied to a deep-groundwater chalk catchment in the UK. The diagnosed hydrological limitations and the proposed ways to address them are indicative of the challenges faced while transitioning to a global high resolution model of the water cycle.
  • Journal article
    Hoogakker BAA, Smith RS, Singarayer JS, Marchant R, Prentice IC, Allen JRM, Anderson RS, Bhagwat SA, Behling H, Borisova O, Bush M, Correa-Metrio A, de Vernal A, Finch JM, Frechette B, Lozano-Garcia S, Gosling WD, Granoszewski W, Grimm EC, Grueger E, Hanselman J, Harrison SP, Hill TR, Huntley B, Jimenez-Moreno G, Kershaw P, Ledru M-P, Magri D, McKenzie M, Mueller U, Nakagawa T, Novenko E, Penny D, Sadori L, Scott L, Stevenson J, Valdes PJ, Vandergoes M, Velichko A, Whitlock C, Tzedakis Cet al., 2016,

    Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr

    , Climate of the Past, Vol: 12, Pages: 51-73, ISSN: 1814-9332

    A new global synthesis and biomization of long (> 40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models and the BIOME4 vegetation model to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Simulated biome distributions using BIOME4 driven by HadCM3 and FAMOUS at the global scale over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. Global average areas of grassland and dry shrubland, desert, and tundra biomes show large-scale increases during the Last Glacial Maximum, between ca. 64 and 74 ka BP and cool substages of Marine Isotope Stage 5, at the expense of the tropical forest, warm-temperate forest, and temperate forest biomes. These changes are reflected in BIOME4 simulations of global net primary productivity, showing good agreement between the two models. Such changes are likely to affect terrestrial carbon storage, which in turn influences the stable carbon isotopic composition of seawater as terrestrial carbon is depleted in 13C.
  • Journal article
    Vire A, Spinneken J, Piggott MD, Pain CC, Kramer SCet al., 2016,

    Application of the immersed-body method to simulatewave–structure interactions

    , European Journal of Mechanics B: Fluids, Vol: 55, Pages: 330-339, ISSN: 1873-7390

    This study aims at demonstrating the capability of the immersed-body method to simulate wave–structure interactions using a non-linear finite-element model. In this approach, the Navier–Stokes equations are solved on an extended mesh covering the whole computational domain (i.e. fluids and structure). The structure is identified on the extended mesh through a nonzero solid-concentration field, which is obtained by conservatively mapping the mesh discretising the structure onto the extended mesh. A penalty term relaxes the fluid and structural velocities to one another in the regions covered by the structure. The paper is novel in that it combines the immersed-body method with wave modelling and mesh adaptivity. The focus of the paper is therefore on demonstrating the capability of this new methodology in reproducing well-established test cases, rather than investigating new physical phenomena in wave–structure interactions. Two cases are considered for a bottom-mounted pile. First, the pile is placed in a numerical wave tank, where propagating waves are modelled through a free-surface boundary condition. For regular and irregular waves, it is shown that the wave dynamics are accurately modelled by the computational fluid dynamics model and only small discrepancies are observed in the close vicinity of the structure. Second, the structure is subjected to a dam-break wave impact obtained by removing a barrier between air and water. In that case, an additional advection equation is solved for a fluid-concentration field that tracks the evolution of the air–water interface. It is shown that the load associated with the wave impact on the structure compares well with existing numerical and experimental data.
  • Journal article
    Metz A, Darch G, Workman M, 2016,

    Realising a climate-resilient UK electricity and gas system

    , Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy, Vol: 169, Pages: 30-43, ISSN: 1751-4223

    The risks presented by climate change mean that there is a need to future-proof the UK's energy (electricity and natural gas) infrastructure. The scale of investment required is estimated at more than £200 billion by 2030. Although there are a variety of funding sources available, increasing proportions of infrastructure investment are now being funded by the private sector. Therefore, it will be necessary to find ways to incentivise private investors to accommodate for adaptation requirements in their decision-making processes. Research was undertaken to explore the UK energy infrastructure under the following three main lenses. (a) What technical aspects of energy infrastructure need to consider the effects of climate change? (b) What investment is required in the near future to adapt to climate change? (c) What types of policy could create reliable signals for investment in climate change adaptation? This paper presents key findings and considerations for policy covering the three questions above: (a) there are data gaps, interdependencies not effectively assessed and techniques available but not yet adopted; (b) the investment community suffers from a lack of climate change expertise and a short-term mindset; and (c) there is a need for a clearer policy vision and greater collaboration.
  • Journal article
    Gill RJ, Baldock KCR, Brown MJF, Cresswell JE, Dicks LV, Fountain MT, Garratt MPD, Gough LA, Heard MS, Holland JM, Ollerton J, Stone GN, Tang CQ, Vanbergen AJ, Vogler AP, Woodward G, Arce AN, Boatman ND, Brand-Hardy R, Breeze TD, Green M, Hartfield CM, O'Connor RS, Osborne JL, Phillips J, Sutton PB, Potts SGet al., 2016,

    Protecting an Ecosystem Service: Approaches to Understanding and Mitigating Threats to Wild Insect Pollinators

    , Advances in Ecological Research, Vol: 54, Pages: 135-206, ISSN: 0065-2504

    Insect pollination constitutes an ecosystem service of global importance, providing significant economic and aesthetic benefits as well as cultural value to human society, alongside vital ecological processes in terrestrial ecosystems. It is therefore important to understand how insect pollinator populations and communities respond to rapidly changing environments if we are to maintain healthy and effective pollinator services. This chapter considers the importance of conserving pollinator diversity to maintain a suite of functional traits and provide a diverse set of pollinator services. We explore how we can better understand and mitigate the factors that threaten insect pollinator richness, placing our discussion within the context of populations in predominantly agricultural landscapes in addition to urban environments. We highlight a selection of important evidence gaps, with a number of complementary research steps that can be taken to better understand: (i) the stability of pollinator communities in different landscapes in order to provide diverse pollinator services; (ii) how we can study the drivers of population change to mitigate the effects and support stable sources of pollinator services and (iii) how we can manage habitats in complex landscapes to support insect pollinators and provide sustainable pollinator services for the future. We advocate a collaborative effort to gain higher quality abundance data to understand the stability of pollinator populations and predict future trends. In addition, for effective mitigation strategies to be adopted, researchers need to conduct rigorous field testing of outcomes under different landscape settings, acknowledge the needs of end-users when developing research proposals and consider effective methods of knowledge transfer to ensure effective uptake of actions.
  • Journal article
    Chen Z, Wang X, Atkinson A, Brandon Net al., 2016,

    Spherical Indentation of Porous Ceramics: Elasticity and Hardness

    , Journal of the European Ceramic Society, Vol: 36, Pages: 1435-1445, ISSN: 1873-619X

    A combined experimental and numerical approach is used to characterise the elastic and plastic deformation of a porous bulk ceramic material (La0.6Sr0.4Co0.2Fe0.8O3, LSCF) with porosities in the range 5–45 vol%, undergoing spherical indentation. The Gurson model was used in FEM simulations to describe the densification of the porous material in the plastic zone under the indenter. The simulated indentation response curves, extracted elastic modulus, hardness and densification in the plastic zone all showed good agreement with corresponding experimental observations. The results show that the hardness increases with maximum indentation depth over a representative depth that depends on porosity. In this particular ceramic the hardness, at sufficiently large penetration depth, is approximately 1.7 times the uniaxial yield stress of the porous material.
  • Journal article
    Le Vine SE, Latinopoulos C, Polak J, 2016,

    Analysis of the relationship between internet usage and allocation of time for personal travel and out of home activities: Case study of Scotland in 2005/6

    , Travel Behaviour and Society, ISSN: 2214-367X
  • Journal article
    Hui R, Lund JR, Madani K, 2016,

    Game theory and risk-based leveed river system planning with noncooperation

    , Water Resources Research, Vol: 52, Pages: 119-134, ISSN: 1944-7973

    Optimal risk-based levee designs are usually developed for economic efficiency. However, in river systems with multiple levees, the planning and maintenance of different levees are controlled by different agencies or groups. For example, along many rivers, levees on opposite riverbanks constitute a simple leveed river system with each levee designed and controlled separately. Collaborative planning of the two levees can be economically optimal for the whole system. Independent and self-interested landholders on opposite riversides often are willing to separately determine their individual optimal levee plans, resulting in a less efficient leveed river system from an overall society-wide perspective (the tragedy of commons). We apply game theory to simple leveed river system planning where landholders on each riverside independently determine their optimal risk-based levee plans. Outcomes from noncooperative games are analyzed and compared with the overall economically optimal outcome, which minimizes net flood cost system-wide. The system-wide economically optimal solution generally transfers residual flood risk to the lower-valued side of the river, but is often impractical without compensating for flood risk transfer to improve outcomes for all individuals involved. Such compensation can be determined and implemented with landholders' agreements on collaboration to develop an economically optimal plan. By examining iterative multiple-shot noncooperative games with reversible and irreversible decisions, the costs of myopia for the future in making levee planning decisions show the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems to improve decision-making.
  • Journal article
    Gill RJ, Woodward G, 2016,

    Networking our way to better ecosystem service provision

    , Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Vol: 31, Pages: 105-115, ISSN: 0169-5347

    The ecosystem services (EcoS) concept is being used increasingly to attach values to natural systems and the multiple benefits they provide to human societies. Ecosystem processes or functions only become EcoS if they are shown to have social and/or economic value. This should assure an explicit connection between the natural and social sciences, but EcoS approaches have been criticized for retaining little natural science. Preserving the natural, ecological science context within EcoS research is challenging because the multiple disciplines involved have very different traditions and vocabularies (common-language challenge) and span many organizational levels and temporal and spatial scales (scale challenge) that define the relevant interacting entities (interaction challenge). We propose a network-based approach to transcend these discipline challenges and place the natural science context at the heart of EcoS research.
  • Journal article
    Struve T, van de Flierdt T, Robinson LF, Bradtmiller LI, Hines SK, Adkins JF, Lambelet M, Crocket KC, Kreissig K, Coles B, Auro MEet al., 2016,

    Neodymium isotope analyses after combined extraction of actinide and lanthanide elements from seawater and deep-sea coral aragonite

    , Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems, Vol: 17, Pages: 232-240, ISSN: 1525-2027

    Isotopes of the actinide elements protactinium (Pa), thorium (Th) and uranium (U), and the lanthanide element neodymium (Nd) are often used as complementary tracers of modern and past oceanic processes. The extraction of such elements from low abundance matrices, such as seawater and carbonate, is however labor-intensive and requires significant amounts of sample material. We here present a combined method for the extraction of Pa, Th and Nd from 5 to 10 L seawater samples, and of U, Th and Nd from <1 g carbonate samples. Neodymium is collected in the respective wash fractions of Pa-Th and U-Th anion exchange chromatographies. Regardless of the original sample matrix, Nd is extracted during a two-stage ion chromatography, followed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) analysis as NdO+. Using this combined procedure, we obtained results for Nd isotopic compositions on two GEOTRACES consensus samples from Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS), which are within error identical to results for separately sampled and processed dedicated Nd samples (εNd = -9.20 ± 0.21 and -13.11 ± 0.21 for 15 and 2000 m water depths, respectively; intercalibration results from 14 laboratories: εNd = -9.19 ± 0.57 and -13.14 ± 0.57). Furthermore, Nd isotope results for an in-house coral reference material are identical within analytical uncertainty for dedicated Nd chemistry and after collection of Nd from U-Th anion exchange chromatography. Our procedure does not require major adaptations to independently used ion exchange chromatographies for U-Pa-Th and Nd, and can hence be readily implemented for a wide range of applications.
  • Journal article
    Curto A, de Nazelle A, Donaire-Gonzalez D, Cole-Hunter T, Garcia-Aymerich J, Martínez D, Anaya E, Rodríguez D, Jerrett M, Nieuwenhuijsen MJet al., 2016,

    Private and public modes of bicycle commuting: a perspective on attitude and perception.

    , European Journal of Public Health, Vol: 26, Pages: 717-723, ISSN: 1464-360X

    BACKGROUND: Public bicycle-sharing initiatives can act as health enhancement strategies among urban populations. The aim of the study was to determine which attitudes and perceptions of behavioural control toward cycling and a bicycle-sharing system distinguish commuters with a different adherence to bicycle commuting.  METHODS: The recruitment process was conducted in 40 random points in Barcelona from 2011 to 2012. Subjects completed a telephone-based questionnaire including 27 attitude and perception statements. Based on their most common one-way commute trip and willingness to commute by bicycle, subjects were classified into Private Bicycle (PB), public bicycle or Bicing Bicycle (BB), Willing Non-bicycle (WN) and Non-willing Non-bicycle (NN) commuters. After reducing the survey statements through principal component analysis, a multinomial logistic regression model was obtained to evaluate associations between attitudinal and commuter sub-groups.  RESULTS: We included 814 adults in the analysis [51.6% female, mean (SD): age 36.6 (10.3) years]. BB commuters were 2.0 times [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.1-3.7] less likely to perceive bicycle as a quick, flexible and enjoyable mode compared to PB. BB, WN and NN were 2.5 (95% CI = 1.46-4.24), 2.6 (95% CI = 1.53-4.41) and 2.3 times (95% CI = 1.30-4.10) more likely to perceive benefits of using public bicycles (bicycle maintenance and parking avoidance, low cost and no worries about theft and vandalism) than did PB.  CONCLUSION: Willing non-bicycle and public-bicycle commuters had more favourable perception toward public-shared bicycles compared to private cyclists. Hence, public bicycles may be the impetus for those willing to start bicycle commuting, thereby increasing physical activity levels.
  • Journal article
    Wu B, Merla Y, Yufit V, Brandon NP, Martinez-Botas R, Offer GJet al., 2016,

    Novel application of differential thermal voltammetry as an in-depth state-of-health diagnosis method for lithium-ion batteries

    , Journal of Power Sources, Vol: 307, Pages: 308-319, ISSN: 1873-2755

    Understanding and tracking battery degradation mechanisms and adapting its operation have become a necessity in order to enhance battery durability. A novel use of differential thermal voltammetry (DTV) is presented as an in-situ state-of-health (SOH) estimator for lithium-ion batteries.Accelerated ageing experiments were carried on 5Ah commercial lithium-ion polymer cells operated and stored at different temperature and loading conditions. The cells were analysed regularly with various existing in-situ diagnosis methods and the novel DTV technique to determine their SOH. The diagnosis results were used collectively to elaborate the degradation mechanisms inside the cells. The DTV spectra were decoupled into individual peaks, which each represent particular phases in the negative and positive electrode combined. The peak parameters were used to quantitatively analyse the battery SOH.A different cell of the same chemistry with unknown degradation history was then analysed to explore how the cell degraded. The DTV technique was able to diagnose the cell degradation without relying on supporting results from other methods nor previous cycling data.

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